The growth will be supported in part by the increase in the online penetration of retailers and in part by the increase in the share of multi-brand pure players, which will reach 18% of the market, according to Credit Suisse.
The online search for its new ceiling:
After the great jump registered during the pandemic, moderated later with the opening of stores, the online channel will account for more than half of fashion sales in Europe in 2028.
Specifically, ecommerce will contribute 52% of sales, compared to the 22% it contributed in 2018, before the anabolic effects of the pandemic, and the 38% that Credit Suisse estimates for 2023.
The increase will be motivated by two factors. In the first place, due to the greater online penetration of traditional retailers, which by then will already generate 40% of their sales through the Internet. Currently, the weight is around 30%.
In some cases, such as sports fashion brands and department stores, ecommerce will already contribute 50% of sales in 2028.
The multi-brand channel will concentrate 35% of the fashion market in 2028, compared to 27% in 2018.
The other factor that will motivate the new leap in the online channel is the increase in the share of multi-brand pure players, such as Zalando or Asos, which will account for 18% of the total fashion market in 2028, compared to 5% in 2018 and 9% scheduled for 2023.
The advance of this type of operator will also have another consequence: fashion distribution will not only be more digital, but also more multi-brand. Despite the fact that the strategy of many brands in recent years has been to reinforce direct sales and that the great market leaders such as Inditex and H&M do not have multi-brand distribution, the advance of the pure players will make wholesale have more weight in the sector in 2028 than it has today.
Specifically, multi-brand distribution will account for 35% of fashion sales within six years, which represents a jump of five points compared to the predictions for 2023. In the last five years, the multi-brand has barely scratched three quota points.
Department stores will continue to lose relevance and will contribute only 4% of fashion sales in 2028
The big losers in this new mix will be the high street operators, which in 2018 accounted for 38% of the market in Europe, in 2023 they will have only 28% and by 2028 they will barely concentrate 19% of sales. The next big operator, the discounters, will also lose share, although much more moderately, going from 18% in 2023 to 16% in 2028.
On the other side of the scale are the multi-brand sports chains, which will increase their weight from 9% in 2018 to 13% in 2028, and the multi-brand online ones, which will accelerate their growth in the coming years, reaching an 18% share ( compared to 5% in 2018 and 9% in 2023).
However, the predictions are not as good for the entire multi-brand channel: department stores will continue to lose relevance and will contribute just 4% of total fashion turnover in 2028, compared to 13% in 2018.
Los grandes almacenes seguirán perdiendo relevancia y aportarán sólo el 4% de las ventas de moda en 2028